If Donald Trump Withdraws Military Support to Ukraine, Would Putin Win the War?

New York: If Donald Trump decides to withdraw U.S. military and economic support for Ukraine, the situation in the country could worsen, but it would not necessarily lead to a Russian victory. The outcome depends on various factors, particularly the role of NATO and the stance of other key members.

NATO, which is committed to mutual defense according to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, has relied on the U.S. as its main driving force. However, other NATO countries, such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, have firmly supported Ukraine. Therefore, even if the U.S. under Trump were to change its position, the NATO bloc might continue backing Ukraine due to its geopolitical interests in countering Russian expansion.

Trump has shown an ambiguous stance on NATO, questioning the U.S. commitment in the past and suggesting that European countries should take on more responsibility. His approach to Russia has also raised doubts about his support for Ukraine. Despite this, during his previous term, the U.S. continued to assist Ukraine, albeit more limited than the Biden administration, which has been more active in offering military and economic support.

U.S. support for Ukraine is not solely dependent on the White House. Domestic pressure, foreign policy, and bipartisan backing for Ukraine play vital roles. Within the Republican Party, some factions close to Trump have expressed skepticism about continuing support for Ukraine, while others defend the U.S. commitment. This suggests that even under Trump, support for Ukraine will likely continue, though with possible changes in internal priorities.

If the U.S. reduces its support, it could weaken Ukraine’s resistance, as American aid is crucial. However, other EU countries may intensify their support, especially those in Eastern Europe. Still, the lack of U.S. leadership could result in coordination and weaker commitments within NATO.

Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, and while international assistance is vital, its ability to resist does not depend solely on the U.S. The war in Ukraine also tests the global rules-based system, where Western democracies, including those within NATO, must defend principles like territorial sovereignty.

While withdrawing U.S. support under Trump would complicate the situation, NATO and other European allies would likely remain committed to defending Ukraine, though possibly with more varied approaches. We must wait and see how the situation develops once Trump returns to the White House.